Experts have indicated that China is seeking to increase and modernize its nuclear arsenal to an unprecedented level, in order to enhance its deterrence power in case of conflict with the United States.
Growing ambitions and modernization efforts
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that China currently has a nuclear arsenal consisting of 350 warheads, while Russia has 4,477 and the United States has 3,708 warheads. However, Beijing may raise its number to 1,500 warheads by 2035, according to a report by the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) released last November.
Matt Korda from the US-based nongovernmental organization the Union of Concerned Scientists, which studies nuclear proliferation, says, “It appears that China no longer wants to settle for hundreds of nuclear weapons to ensure its security.”
China is currently undergoing an extensive modernization and expansion of its nuclear forces, which is the most significant in its history.
After its first nuclear test in 1964, China maintained a modest arsenal and pledged not to initiate the use of atomic weapons, stating that it would only resort to them if attacked by such weapons. However, during the past decade, Chinese President Xi Jinping has pushed for a wide-ranging update of the military, including the improvement of nuclear capabilities.
David Logan, a professor at the US Naval War College’s Center for Naval Warfare Studies, says, “China is currently undergoing the most significant expansion and modernization of its nuclear forces in its history.” He added that the country is not only seeking to increase the production of warheads, but also improve its ability to launch them from land, air, and sea.
Implications and challenges
The US Department of Defense also indicates that China is rapidly building intercontinental ballistic missile launch facilities, with more than 300 missile launch sites.
Beijing has repeatedly stated that it maintains its nuclear force at the “lowest level required for national security.” Xi Jinping affirmed in a joint announcement with Russian President Vladimir Putin last March the “necessity of avoiding any nuclear war.”
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, a coalition of nongovernmental organizations, believes that China allocated $11.7 billion to its nuclear program in 2021, less than a third of the US budget in this field.
China seems to no longer be content with just hundreds of nuclear weapons to ensure its security.
Experts believe that there are several obstacles that stand in the way of China’s nuclear arsenal enhancement, and that its means are limited in terms of producing the necessary fissile materials for nuclear warheads. Russia may provide assistance in this regard.
Beijing and Moscow pledged to enhance their nuclear cooperation during the summit that brought Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin together last March. Senior Russian officials in the atomic energy field agreed to help China possess “fast reactors” capable of producing fissile materials at a much faster rate than they consume, according to Moscow.
Beijing claims that the agreement only covers the civilian nuclear program, but experts believe that it could also help form stockpiles of fissile materials for nuclear weapons.
