Taiwan and Ukraine: How Saudi Arabia’s SCO membership matters

Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has significant implications for global politics, particularly in the ongoing Ukraine conflict and with regard to Taiwan.

This move by Riyadh could indicate a choice of side in the Ukraine war, given US President Joe Biden’s refusal to deal with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Additionally, China has brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, leading to a significant geopolitical shift.

SCO: A Growing Economic and Military Powerhouse

The SCO began as the “Shanghai Five” in 1996, and since then, it has admitted additional central Asian states and renamed itself as a military, political, and economic collaboration organisation.

As of 2023, it has nearly 50% of the global population as member states, observers, or partners and approximately 30% of the global economy in nominal terms. To put that in perspective, the G7 represents a much smaller population and only about 27% of the global economy in PPP terms.

Furthermore, the SCO already had more economic clout than the G7 and held its latest set of combined military exercises in 2021. Now, with Saudi Arabia joining the alliance, it will be interesting to see how the country engages militarily.

China’s Strategic Objectives

This edging closer to Beijing is particularly significant given that China has recently strengthened its diplomatic credibility by negotiating a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The Chinese objective is to prepare its alliances for its stated strategic aim of reunification with Taiwan. Through the SCO and other tools, China is lining up its allies to back its position on Taiwan as it ramps up its rhetoric.

The Relevance of UN Resolution 2758

As tensions rise, the expansion of the SCO, and debate around the meaning of resolution 2758 are likely to become more important. In 1971, the resolution confirmed Beijing’s position as the lawful government of China but did not comment on the borders of the territory of China, which has implications for Taiwan.

The day before the resolution was passed, the recognised territory of China included both the mainland and Taiwan. Taiwan’s constitution still claims the mainland and contains “transitional provisions” for elections until reunification.

The two political parties in Taiwan have diverging opinions on integration with, or independence from, China.

The Complications for the US and Its Allies

As China expands the SCO and exercises its diplomatic muscle, the US is firming up its core allies who could support its position on Taiwan through NATO and Aukus. However, it is also losing support in the developing world.

Meanwhile, Australia, the UK, and the US have announced their new Aukus security partnership, with one eye on a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. China’s President Xi Jinping is using the Ukraine war to test Western resolve, use up Western war stocks of munitions, and assess the effectiveness of the weaponry the West gives the Ukrainians, all while moving closer to reunifying the mainland and the island of Taiwan.

In summary, the world should take notice of Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the SCO, given its significant implications for global politics, particularly in the ongoing Ukraine conflict and with regard to Taiwan. The SCO represents a growing economic and military powerhouse, with China leading the alliance to support its objective of reunifying with Taiwan.

As tensions rise, the geopolitical alliances shift, and the debate around UN resolution 2758 becomes more important, the world just got a lot more complicated.