One Month into the Sudan War: Where Do We Go from Here?

As the calendar turns to mark the first month of the ongoing Sudan war, it’s clear that no matter when and how this conflict ends, the consequences will be deeply felt. The violence and systematic destruction have shaken Sudan to its core, and the idea of returning to pre-war normality seems more like a distant dream than a feasible reality.

The Need for Answers and Recovery

The dust of war has raised a lot of questions that beg for answers. More than just the physical reconstruction of destroyed public and private properties, there’s a need for a deep, societal healing process.

The families of the victims bear wounds that extend far beyond physical injuries. The political landscape, riddled with cracks and tensions, also needs comprehensive attention to address and remedy the crisis that ignited the war in the first place.

The Saudi-American Initiative: A Beacon of Hope

The Saudi-American initiative has come forward with a commendable attempt to address the urgent humanitarian crisis brewing in Sudan. They’re striving to strike an agreement that ensures a lasting truce, facilitating the arrival of critical humanitarian aid and evacuation of medical facilities and other service centers that have been seized by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

In the aftermath of war, unity paves the path towards a brighter future for Sudan.

The initiative also pushes for the withdrawal of military presence from residential areas and the capital’s center, aiming to resume everyday life and use these steps as a springboard towards broader political negotiations.

The War’s End and Lessons Learned

The progression to the second stage of this initiative largely depends on how the war concludes, given the rapidly changing military situations on the ground. But even more crucial is how the Sudanese people learn from this ordeal.

It’s vital to identify and correct the missteps that led to this point, paving the way for viable political and military resolutions. However, this requires honest self-reflection and a prioritization of the country’s welfare over any political agenda or short-term gains.

The Future of the Rapid Support Forces

A prominent question is the fate of the Rapid Support Forces after the war. With the trust between the RSF leadership and the army leadership utterly shattered, it’s hard to envision a quick or easy restoration.

Sudan’s true potential lies in a strong civilian rule and institutions, free from military influence.

While agreements and reconciliations can occur between the bitterest of enemies and wars typically conclude with negotiations, the likelihood of real coexistence between these two parties in the post-war Sudanese context remains uncertain.

Challenges of Military Integration and Disbandment

If the war ends with a negotiated solution, the RSF might not continue as auxiliary forces but might be integrated into the armed forces within certain limits. However, this brings its own set of challenges, given the rapid military developments and the recent decision to disband the RSF.

It’s unlikely that all members of the RSF can be integrated, and any assimilation will need to adhere to strict conditions and controls.

Dealing with Foreign Recruitment and Illicit Nationality Grants

The army leadership has also highlighted concerns about the large number of foreign recruits, particularly from West and Central Africa, in the RSF. These recruits won’t be allowed to stay in any post-war arrangement, leaving deportation as the only solution.

Learning from past failures ignites the spark for radical change and a prosperous Sudan.

Alongside this, there’s the issue of individuals who were illicitly granted Sudanese identities and nationalities, a practice that has ramped up over the past four years with the intent of manipulating demographics for political or military gains.

Revisiting the Refugee Issue

The war has also seen rampant acts of looting and vandalism, with some committed by gangs that have been terrorizing citizens for a while. This has spotlighted the need to address the large number of refugees, estimated between 8 and 10 million, most from neighboring African countries, who entered Sudan illegally. Their presence calls for careful scrutiny and organization.

The Fight against Uncontrolled Militias and Weapons

The war’s numerous violations, the collapse of security, rampant looting, destruction of public facilities, and home invasions have driven the Sudanese people towards a consensus: they want an end to auxiliary forces, militias, street gangs, and uncontrolled weapons.

They seek a future where no weapon exists outside the state’s control and no threats to security and stability are tolerated.

The Civil-Military Relationship Post-War

Apart from the future of the RSF, another pressing question pertains to the relationship between civil and military forces post-war. The tension between these two entities was a significant factor that contributed to the war’s outbreak.

The challenge lies in whether these parties can bridge their differences, agree on a shared vision, and chart a roadmap for returning to the transitional path and completing the civil democratic transformation.

The Upcoming Political Changes

It’s apparent that the political landscape won’t be the same as before the war. The army has been calling for, and is expected to stick to, an expanded consensus around any political agreement.

This would require a fresh approach from the civil forces to shield Sudan from recurring and prolonged disputes that have plagued the country over the past four years and set the stage for war.

Lessons from War and Hopes for the Future

The Sudanese must understand that in times of war, citizens often evacuate, and even if some Sudanese leave, their homeland remains their primary refuge and source of dignity. Hopefully, the war will stimulate profound reflection on past experiences and failures, sparking a genuine reform that ensures security, stability, and puts an end to the cycle of coups and politicization of the military.

Addressing the humanitarian crisis is the first step towards healing and rebuilding a war-torn nation.

This reform should establish peaceful power transition, freeing Sudan from the chains of underdevelopment and leveraging its abundant resources for balanced and inclusive development.

The Road Ahead

The path forward hinges on the aftermath of this war. If the Sudanese can agree on a transitional period of at least three years, rebuild, and establish a robust civilian rule with strong institutions, then there’s hope.

The army’s exit from politics to focus on its core duties as a professional national force would be a promising sign of emerging light at the end of this dark tunnel. If not, Sudan may continue its slow descent towards division and decline.

Looking Beyond the War

As we reflect on the first month of the Sudan war, it’s essential to remember that wars do end, often sooner than anticipated. Despite the dire circumstances, there is a glimmer of hope. If the Sudanese people can come together in the aftermath of this conflict, agreeing on a transitional period of at least three years, they can start laying the foundation for a solid civilian rule.

Building strong institutions, devoid of the military’s political influence, will be a significant step towards the light at the end of this dark tunnel. The army, focusing on its basic tasks, should remain a professional national force, unswayed and undistracted by the turmoil of politics.

However, this path is not without its challenges. It involves complex negotiations, addressing socio-political issues, and managing the integration and disbandment of military groups. It also requires dealing with the controversial topic of illicitly granted nationalities and the presence of a large number of refugees.

Together, the Sudanese people have the power to transform their nation and secure lasting peace.

Moreover, a strong stand against unregulated militias, gangs, and weapons is crucial to ensure long-term security and stability.

The Sudanese people have a daunting task ahead, but the potential rewards are enormous. Achieving these goals would free Sudan from the chains of underdevelopment, allowing it to tap into its abundant resources for balanced and inclusive development. It would signal the end of the cycle of coups and the politicization of the military, establishing a peaceful power transition.

But, most importantly, it would give the Sudanese people a chance to rebuild their lives and their nation, learning from the past but not being held captive by it. The alternative, unfortunately, is a continuation of Sudan’s slow decline, division, and potential dissolution. The choices made in the aftermath of this war will determine Sudan’s course for the foreseeable future.

For now, the primary focus should be on ending the conflict and addressing the immediate humanitarian crisis. But as the dust of war settles, the real work will begin.

The task of building a stable, secure, and prosperous Sudan starts the moment the guns fall silent. It’s a daunting task, but with unity, determination, and a clear vision for the future, the Sudanese people have the power to transform their nation and set it on a path towards peace and prosperity.