Challenges and Opportunities: Turkey’s Election and The Future of EU-Turkey Relations

Today, on May 14, the Turkish presidential election is taking place, marking a momentous occasion as one of the most important elections in Turkey’s history. With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan facing a unified opposition and a formidable candidate in Kemal Kilictaroglu, the geopolitical landscape of Europe is poised for potential shifts.

This article delves into the challenges of the Turkish elections from a Western perspective, assessing the potential implications for Europe. As the fate of Erdogan’s rule hangs in the balance, questions arise about the future of Turkey’s relationship with the West, its alignment with NATO and Russia, and the resolution of outstanding issues with the European Union.

The Rise of a United Opposition

The Turkish presidential election presents a unique scenario, unlike previous instances where Erdogan’s dominance and a fragmented opposition ensured predictable outcomes. This time, a united opposition has coalesced behind Kemal Kilictaroglu, offering a serious challenge to Erdogan’s rule.

Kilictaroglu has positioned himself as a statesman with a comprehensive political and economic program, promising solutions to Turkey’s pressing issues. This unity and credible alternative challenge Erdogan’s long-standing hold on power, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election.

Erosion of Erdogan’s Popularity

Erdogan’s prolonged tenure has resulted in a growing perception that Turkey requires renewal. His polarizing image and concerns about freedom of the press and restrictions on public and private freedoms have led to a decline in popularity among various segments of Turkish society.

In contrast, Kilictaroglu’s calm and steady demeanor has resonated with many, earning him the reputation of the “quiet force” and the embodiment of unity and stability. As Erdogan’s support wanes, Kilictaroglu’s emergence as a balanced and statesmanlike candidate has further highlighted the erosion of Erdogan’s appeal.

Turkey’s Relationship with the West

Erdogan’s strained relationship with Western nations, particularly in Europe, has resulted in significant tensions and friction. His refusal to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO while accepting Finland’s membership has drawn widespread criticism.

Additionally, Turkey’s failure to implement European and American sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns about Ankara’s alignment with the West. Erdogan’s confrontational rhetoric and controversial remarks against Western leaders, such as accusing Angela Merkel of “Nazi practices” and targeting Emmanuel Macron, have further strained relations.

The potential departure of Erdogan from power raises questions about the future dynamics of Turkey’s relationship with NATO and its alignment with Russia. A Kilictaroglu victory would be perceived as a positive transformation, fostering a more conciliatory approach toward the West.

However, Erdogan’s re-election would reinforce concerns about Turkey’s drift away from Western interests and its closer alignment with Russia. These factors have significant geopolitical implications for Europe, particularly regarding regional alliances and security dynamics.

Challenges with the European Union

than pursuing full membership, Turkey’s relations with the European Union could shift towards a more “normal” state. This shift implies a pragmatic approach that focuses on enhancing cooperation in specific areas of mutual interest, such as trade, security, and migration.

While the outstanding issues between Turkey and the European Union may not be resolved immediately, Kilictaroglu’s leadership may foster an environment of dialogue and improved understanding, which could contribute to a more constructive relationship between Ankara and Brussels.

Geopolitical Repercussions for Europe

The potential departure of Erdogan and the victory of Kilictaroglu hold significant geopolitical implications for Europe. Kilictaroglu’s more conciliatory approach towards the West and potential normalization of relations with the European Union would likely be welcomed by European leaders. It could open avenues for increased cooperation on regional security, migration management, and economic partnerships.

The potential departure of Erdogan marks a major geopolitical shift that could reshape Turkey’s relations with the West.

Additionally, the nature of Turkey’s future relationship with NATO and its existing ties with Russia would require careful assessment. Erdogan’s defeat would alleviate concerns about Turkey’s alignment with Russia and might signal a recommitment to NATO values and obligations. On the other hand, Erdogan’s re-election could deepen divisions and raise questions about Turkey’s position within the alliance.

The geopolitical landscape in Europe could witness recalibrations due to the Turkish elections. Kilictaroglu’s leadership and the potential departure of Erdogan may lead to a more stable and predictable partner in Turkey, contributing to regional security and stability.

Furthermore, a renewed focus on dialogue and cooperation with the European Union could positively impact Europe’s relations with Turkey and foster a more constructive engagement on shared challenges.

Kilictaroglu’s victory would signal a new era of stability, cooperation, and potential normalization of Turkey’s ties with the European Union.

The upcoming Turkish presidential election carries immense geopolitical implications for Europe. The rise of a united opposition challenges Erdogan’s dominance, signaling a potential shift in Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies.

Kilictaroglu’s leadership could pave the way for a more conciliatory approach towards the West, potentially normalizing relations with the European Union and reconsidering Turkey’s alignment with NATO and Russia. As the election unfolds, the geopolitical repercussions for Europe will become more apparent, shaping regional alliances, security dynamics, and cooperation on common challenges.

The outcome of the Turkish elections will undoubtedly impact the broader geopolitical landscape in Europe.