Sudan has been grappling with persistent conflicts, with ceasefires repeatedly failing to bring lasting peace. The warring factions, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, have shown limited interest in long-term ceasefires and have been unable to achieve a swift victory.
Despite recent attempts at brokering peace, the ceasefires have quickly crumbled, prompting an examination of the reasons behind their ineffectiveness.
The Cycle of Failed Ceasefires
Numerous ceasefire agreements between the warring factions have proven short-lived, with fighting resuming shortly after implementation. These truces, ranging from hours to days, have merely offered temporary respites from the ongoing conflict. Some Sudanese citizens have even resorted to dark humor, jokingly referring to the sounds of explosions as the “sound of the ceasefire.”
Ceasefires in Sudan remain elusive, with fleeting truces giving way to relentless violence and shattered hopes.
The intensity of the fighting has been particularly pronounced in significant government and military centers, as both sides vie for control over critical areas and institutions that provide them legitimacy. Regrettably, even hospitals have become targets of the violence, contributing to a death toll that has now surpassed 500.
The Ceasefire Failures
The primary reason behind the repeated failures of the ceasefires lies in both sides’ belief that they can secure victory through military means. The warring factions appear to view the ongoing conflict as an opportunity to bolster their positions, anticipating that mounting international pressure could eventually force them to negotiate.
While the international community has made efforts to initiate dialogue, their impact has been limited to assisting with evacuations and ensuring the safety of foreign citizens, with little progress made toward substantial negotiations.
The lack of clear incentives for both sides to pursue a peaceful resolution, coupled with the sidelining of Sudan’s civilian pro-democracy forces, has further contributed to the continuous failure of the ceasefires.
Power Dynamics at Play
Neither General al-Burhan nor Hemedti has shown a willingness to back down, resulting in a deadlock where neither side has gained a decisive advantage. The army has predominantly relied on its perceived superior firepower, particularly its ability to conduct air raids against the RSF.
The pursuit of military victory overshadows the urgent need for a peaceful resolution in Sudan’s conflict.
In response, the RSF has strategically positioned itself in residential areas, making it more challenging for the army’s aerial assaults to be effective. Moreover, the RSF has faced accusations of appropriating homes and markets to establish operational bases. These tactics force the military to decide between inflicting widespread destruction on Khartoum to target the RSF or adopting a slower approach.
General al-Burhan holds the status of representing the army, a fully-fledged state institution. Conversely, the RSF, having fought for the government in the western region of Darfur, appears battle-hardened and poses a formidable challenge.
Controlling Forces
General al-Burhan and Hemedti were former allies of ousted President Omar al-Bashir before joining forces to remove him from power in 2019. The generals harbor concerns about facing a similar fate and losing control over their alliances.
Speculation has arisen that al-Burhan could be vulnerable to being overthrown by his generals, some of whom maintain close ties to al-Bashir and Sudan’s political Islamist movement. These factions may pressure al-Burhan to resist backing down and reaching a deal with Hemedti. Hemedti, in turn, positions himself as a bulwark against the return of al-Bashir’s supporters to power.
International efforts have fallen short, leaving Sudan’s pro-democracy forces sidelined and the path to peace uncertain.
Furthermore, Hemedti must maintain the loyalty of his vast force, particularly in Darfur, where he gained prominence fighting against separatist groups and local tribes. His rival, Musa Hilal, a chief from the same tribe, was previously replaced by Hemedti as the head of the RSF after a falling out with the government.
Now, Hilal may be seeking to reclaim his former position, and there are indications that the army may be open to supporting him.
Maintaining the loyalty and unity of his forces poses a significant challenge for Hemedti. As a former ally of President Omar al-Bashir, Hemedti seeks to present himself as a bulwark against the return of al-Bashir’s supporters to power.
However, internal rivalries and power struggles within the RSF complicate the situation. Musa Hilal’s desire to regain influence and leadership may lead to further divisions within the RSF and strain Hemedti’s control over his forces.
Unpacking the Dynamics
To navigate these challenges, Hemedti must employ strategic measures. He needs to maintain the trust and support of his troops by ensuring their welfare, addressing their grievances, and providing them with incentives for loyalty.
Hemedti’s experiences in Darfur and his reputation as a fierce combatant against separatist groups may work in his favor, as he can leverage his battlefield credibility to maintain the loyalty of his forces. However, the delicate balance of power within the RSF requires Hemedti to exercise careful diplomacy and effective leadership to prevent internal divisions from weakening his position.
The clash for legitimacy engulfs major centers, turning hospitals into casualties and amplifying the human toll.
In conclusion, Hemedti’s ability to sustain the loyalty of his vast force, particularly in the face of internal rivalries and the ambitions of figures like Musa Hilal, remains a crucial factor in the dynamics of Sudan’s conflict.
As he positions himself as a safeguard against the return of al-Bashir’s supporters, Hemedti must navigate these challenges with strategic leadership, addressing the needs of his troops and maintaining their trust and allegiance.
The outcome of these power struggles within the RSF will significantly impact the prospects for a sustainable ceasefire and lasting peace in Sudan.
