Will Turkey’s Election Results Bring Stability or Uncertainty to the Country?

I visited Turkey a week before the elections to observe the historical electoral process closely. The elections were expected to transform Turkey’s democratic mechanisms and take the country on a different path, diverging from the principles of the Atatürk Republic.

I noticed visible signs of caution due to customs regulations. Even the entrances to popular markets were guarded by armed men, and armored vehicles were seen near gathering places. However, life in the most prominent commercial capital, Istanbul, seemed normal.

Uncertainty Before the Elections

I did not have definite information about the voting process or its potential outcomes until a few days before election day. Most people I met believed that a second round of voting was inevitable between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and possibly his closest competitor, Kemal Kilictaroglu, the candidate of the opposing coalition.

I had reservations about some of Erdoğan’s policies, especially his recent efforts to draw attention to his achievements. However, these reservations were not personal.

Turkey’s Relationship with Iran

Turkey’s relationship with Iran is complex, relying on extensive trade and political interests. Turkey benefits from importing energy from Iran, and Iran converts the funds it receives into gold and sells it to other countries, avoiding the restrictions imposed by international banking regulations.

The trade balance between Iran and Turkey peaked in 2012 at $14 billion and has since slightly declined. However, the new development in this file was the announcement of sanctions against Iran by the United States on May 8th, following the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.

US Sanctions and Turkey’s Dilemma

The sanctions will be applied to Iran and any country or company dealing with Iran, as stated by the US President. Turkey’s official response, delivered by the Minister of Economy on May 11th, noted that the country would continue trading with Iran as much as possible and would not comply with anyone.

When the warning period specified by the United States ends on August 6th and the second phase on November 4th, 2018, Turkey will find itself at a crossroads: continuing trade and political relations with Iran or responding to the demands of its ally, which seems to have decided to please Ankara through various means, such as releasing its grip on northern Syria and allowing the delivery of advanced warplanes, namely the F-35.

Turkey’s Complex Relationship with Iran

The Turkish-Iranian relationship is more complicated than just trade. Both countries and Russia are involved in managing and possibly destabilizing Syria’s military and political theater.

If possible, Iran may try to hinder Turkey’s military efforts in northern Syria and Iraq. With its dynamics, this file will impact the future of Turkey’s relationship with many Arab countries and its major ally, the United States.

The political maneuvering in this file cannot last long, with the placement of a person here and another there, as Erdogan has done in other files.

A Political Game with Israel

Turkey’s stance towards Israel is opportunistic. Turkey decided to withdraw its ambassador from Washington after the US administration announced the opening of its embassy in West Jerusalem.

However, a few months later, the Turkish ambassador was reinstated. Similarly, the Turkish ambassador was withdrawn from Israel politically while maintaining solid commercial ties.

Turkey and Iran use this Palestine card to confuse the Arab position and exploit the sentiments of some Arabs who are easily swayed in an issue that cannot tolerate maneuvering or speculative actions.

It is a political game that holds great significance for Arabs. These two aspects, however, are not the only concerns.

Erosion of Democracy

The way Turkish authorities deal with dissent, especially peaceful dissenters, raises reservations. Under the state of emergency, Turkey currently detains many journalists and opinion leaders. This undermines Turkish democracy.

Alongside the concerns above, examining the programs of competing parties would invoke the Gulf’s famous saying: “Keep your lunatic away, so you don’t go insane.” Some programs advocate for normalizing relations with the Syrian regime and forcibly repatriating Syrian refugees to their home countries. Other aspects of Turkey’s foreign policy can potentially disrupt the Middle East region.

Erdogan’s Supporters: Three Segments

It is estimated that those who voted for Erdogan can be divided into three segments. The first segment consists of individuals who have faith in his policies.

The second segment comprises those who seek stability. The third segment may have been frightened by the opposition’s program.

However, future challenges for Erdogan are not easy. They include the economy, noticeable in the decline of the Turkish lira’s value, and the Kurdish issue, as the rise of the pro-Kurdish party in parliament poses a headache for Erdogan’s administration.

Before the elections, rumors were circulating among members of his party about attempts to prevent the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), representing the Kurds, from entering parliament.

The Danger of Populism

One of the significant risks is that Erdogan may consider the election results as a full mandate. This sets the stage for populism, which could lead the entire Turkish experience to a dead end.

Ultimately, it is essential to highlight that political populism can succeed at the ballot box. Still, it often leads to conflicts with neighboring countries, with consequences that may not be favorable.

Middle East history provides numerous examples of political populism, reminding us of this reality.

Political Populism and its Ramifications

The recent warm reception of Erdogan’s victory by some Arabs, describing it as a triumph of an integrated ideology of political Islam, is misleading and can cloud one’s judgment.

The Turkish experience, as reiterated by Erdogan himself, presents a modern and sophisticated secular appearance, utilizing contemporary means of governance in politics, economy, and regulation.

However, the Turkish people are predominantly Muslim, and there is no contradiction. The issue lies in the way some individuals mix the two to promote immature political agendas, such as inflating the illusion of a new sultan on the horizon.

One of the most significant risks is considering the election results as a full mandate, which can foster populism, leading to conflicts with neighboring countries and potentially hindering the Turkish experience.

Unbalanced Relations

It is crucial to shed light on the consequences of political populism and remain cautious. The Turkish future holds numerous challenges for Erdogan, ranging from the economy to the Kurdish question. The impact of Turkey’s actions in the region and its complex relationships with Iran and Israel should not be overlooked.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for the Arab world and Turkey’s principal ally, the United States.

In conclusion, political populism can bring short-term electoral success, but it often carries long-term repercussions that undermine regional stability and cooperation.

It is imperative to approach these developments with a clear understanding of the potential consequences and work towards fostering dialogue and constructive engagement to achieve mutual interests and sustainable peace.