Recent discussions surrounding Turkish-Syrian relations have stirred both hopes of revival and uncertainties about their future trajectory.
While the possibility of improved ties lingers, a swift recovery remains elusive, leaving analysts to explore the historical, geopolitical, and regional factors that shape this intricate relationship.
Evolving Relations
Decades of strained ties between Turkey and Syria saw moments of improvement, notably during President Ahmet Necdet Sezer’s attendance at the funeral of Syrian President Hafez Assad in 2000.
Turkish-Syrian ties, once hopeful, now grapple with historical burdens and shifting regional dynamics.
A period of warmth emerged in 2009 when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Assad spent their holidays in Turkey together. However, the Arab Spring marked a turning point, altering the course of these relations.
The Arab Spring and Its Aftermath
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party initially perceived an opportunity to lead a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated belt of nations from Tunisia to Syria, envisioning regional influence.
Yet, the dream was short-lived, as events unfolded differently. Instead of becoming a regional leader, Turkey became entangled in disputes with neighboring countries, disrupting its ambitions.
Turkish military interventions in Syria have punctuated the strained relations. Presently, discussions focus on the terms of Turkey’s withdrawal from certain territories.
Syrian President Assad has indicated that Turkey’s withdrawal from northern Syria is a prerequisite for normalizing Ankara-Damascus relations. This condition underscores the complexities of mending bilateral ties.
US and Russian alignment with Kurds adds complexity, shaping power dynamics in Syrian territories.
Assad’s conditions for re-establishing relations include the withdrawal of Turkish military forces from Syrian territories and a cessation of support for extremist groups.
While some Arab nations have made strides in improving their relations with Turkey, Syria’s stance underscores the significance of these demands. Assad’s willingness to restore relations hinges on Turkey’s adherence to these conditions.
Turkish Perspective and Kurdish Dynamics
Turkey’s Defense Minister Yasar Guler emphasized the nation’s stance on withdrawal from Syria, citing border security and the safety of Turkish citizens near the Syrian border. The presence of Kurdish fighters supported by the US complicates the power dynamics.
The Kurds control significant Syrian territory, challenging the region’s stability.
Turkey’s misfortune lies in aligning influential players, such as the US and Russia, with the Kurdish cause. Russia seeks to integrate Kurdish fighters into the Syrian army, while the Syrian National Army’s fate remains uncertain.
Arab League’s reintegration of Syria ignites challenges for Turkish-Syrian relations on regional platforms.
Integrating these fighters into Syrian society raises questions about societal acceptance and potential tensions between Turkey and Syria.
Challenges and Complications
Turkey’s Syria policy has bred numerous challenges that require concerted efforts. The Arab League’s invitation to Syria, ending its isolation after a 12-year hiatus, provides Damascus with a platform to voice concerns against Turkey.
Geopolitical shifts and regional dynamics compound the complexity of Turkish-Syrian relations.
The path to improved Turkish-Syrian relations is fraught with challenges from historical tensions, regional influences, and geopolitical interests. Though a significant step, Turkey’s withdrawal from Syria raises questions about the fate of Kurdish forces and the region’s stability.
The convergence of US and Russian support for the Kurds complicates the picture, shaping the dynamics between Ankara, Damascus, and the Kurdish factions.
Rebuilding Turkish-Syrian ties requires navigating intricate histories, geopolitical influences, and Kurdish complexities.
As Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League marks a turning point, Turkish-Syrian relations face uphill challenges. Navigating these complexities requires strategic diplomacy, cooperation, and a willingness to address historical grievances.
The road ahead demands a delicate balance between regional interests, geopolitical realities, and the aspirations of the Syrian people. In a rapidly evolving Middle East, the journey towards improved Turkish-Syrian relations remains a complex endeavor that necessitates careful consideration and commitment from all stakeholders.
